Magic Formula & Signal Update on Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) as Reading Touches 5988

Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) has a current MF Rank of 5988. The Magic Formula was developed by hedge fund manager Joel Greenblatt, the intention of the formula is to spot high quality companies that are trading at an attractive price. 

It is no secret that most investors have the best of intentions when diving into the equity markets. Making sound, informed decisions can help the investor make the most progress when dealing with the markets. Often times, investors may think they have everything in order, but they still come out on the losing end. Investors may need to figure out ways to keep emotion out of stock picking. Sometimes trading on emotions can lead to poor results. Making hasty decisions and not paying attention to the correct data can lead to poor performing portfolios in the long-term.

Free Cash Flow Growth (FCF Growth) is the free cash flow of the current year minus the free cash flow from the previous year, divided by last year’s free cash flow.  The FCF Growth of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 0.244941.  Free cash flow (FCF) is the cash produced by the company minus capital expenditure.  This cash is what a company uses to meet its financial obligations, such as making payments on debt or to pay out dividends.  

The Free Cash Flow Score (FCF Score) is a helpful tool in calculating the free cash flow growth with free cash flow stability – this gives investors the overall quality of the free cash flow.  The FCF Score of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 0.845718.  Experts say the higher the value, the better, as it means that the free cash flow is high, or the variability of free cash flow is low or both.

The Return on Invested Capital (aka ROIC) for Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 0.242190.  The Return on Invested Capital is a ratio that determines whether a company is profitable or not.  It tells investors how well a company is turning their capital into profits.  The ROIC is calculated by dividing the net operating profit (or EBIT) by the employed capital.  The employed capital is calculated by subrating current liabilities from total assets.  Similarly, the Return on Invested Capital Quality ratio is a tool in evaluating the quality of a company’s ROIC over the course of five years.  The ROIC Quality of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 8.009102.  This is calculated by dividing the five year average ROIC by the Standard Deviation of the 5 year ROIC.  The ROIC 5 year average is calculated using the five year average EBIT, five year average (net working capital and net fixed assets).  The ROIC 5 year average of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 0.208252.

Shareholder Yield

The Shareholder Yield is a way that investors can see how much money shareholders are receiving from a company through a combination of dividends, share repurchases and debt reduction.  The Shareholder Yield of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 0.041449.  This percentage is calculated by adding the dividend yield plus the percentage of shares repurchased.  Dividends are a common way that companies distribute cash to their shareholders.  Similarly, cash repurchases and a reduction of debt can increase the shareholder value, too.  Another way to determine the effectiveness of a company’s distributions is by looking at the Shareholder yield (Mebane Faber).  The Shareholder Yield (Mebane Faber) of Novartis AG SWX:NOVN is 0.03179.  This number is calculated by looking at the sum of the dividend yield plus percentage of sales repurchased and net debt repaid yield.

Investors have the ability to approach the stock market from various angles. This may include using technical analysis, fundamental analysis, or a combination or the two. Investors watching the technical levels may be trying to chart patterns and discover trends in stock price movement. Investors tracking the fundamentals may be looking closely at many different factors. They may be focused on industry performance, earnings estimates, dividend payouts, and other factors. They might also be studying how the company is run, and trying to figure out the true value of the firm. Keeping track of all the data may seem overwhelming, but it may help give a needed boost to the portfolio. 

The Value Composite One (VC1) is a method that investors use to determine a company’s value.  The VC1 of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 49.  A company with a value of 0 is thought to be an undervalued company, while a company with a value of 100 is considered an overvalued company.  The VC1 is calculated using the price to book value, price to sales, EBITDA to EV, price to cash flow, and price to earnings.  Similarly, the Value Composite Two (VC2) is calculated with the same ratios, but adds the Shareholder Yield.  The Value Composite Two of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 40.

Investors may be interested in viewing the Gross Margin score on shares of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN). The name currently has a score of 18.00000. This score is derived from the Gross Margin (Marx) stability and growth over the previous eight years. The Gross Margin score lands on a scale from 1 to 100 where a score of 1 would be considered positive, and a score of 100 would be seen as negative.

ERP5 Rank

The ERP5 Rank is an investment tool that analysts use to discover undervalued companies. The ERP5 looks at the Price to Book ratio, Earnings Yield, ROIC and 5 year average ROIC. The ERP5 of Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) is 6409. The lower the ERP5 rank, the more undervalued a company is thought to be.

C-Score – Montier

Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) currently has a Montier C-score of 1.00000. This indicator was developed by James Montier in an attempt to identify firms that were cooking the books in order to appear better on paper. The score ranges from zero to six where a 0 would indicate no evidence of book cooking, and a 6 would indicate a high likelihood. A C-score of -1 would indicate that there is not enough information available to calculate the score. Montier used six inputs in the calculation. These inputs included a growing difference between net income and cash flow from operations, increasing receivable days, growing day’s sales of inventory, increasing other current assets, decrease in depreciation relative to gross property plant and equipment, and high total asset growth.

F Score

At the time of writing, Novartis AG (SWX:NOVN) has a Piotroski F-Score of 8. The F-Score may help discover companies with strengthening balance sheets. The score may also be used to spot the weak performers. Joseph Piotroski developed the F-Score which employs nine different variables based on the company financial statement. A single point is assigned to each test that a stock passes. Typically, a stock scoring an 8 or 9 would be seen as strong. On the other end, a stock with a score from 0-2 would be viewed as weak.

Investors looking to chalk up healthy returns in the stock market may need to pay attention to avoid common pitfalls. When the good times are rolling, investors may be highly tempted to move a lot of money into certain stocks that have been churning out returns. One problem with this approach is that a stock that has been hot for a few months might not be hot over the next three months. It is always important to remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. Getting into a stock too late may leave the average investor pounding the table as a former winner turns into a current loser. 

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